By the end of February the stock market rose this abnormal situation super, but some analysts not foresee a day Jiepan but also the development trend of the stock market. For the stock market, here on four points: First, the allocation on fluctuate from time to time is not necessarily a bad thing; native of the old Jin Renqing prefer the occurrence of small earthquakes from time to time, without a period of hope when the earthquake suddenly no longer have a day to A high level of the earthquake. In fact, the stock market investors to San Francisco with the psychological is the same, if a long time to maintain market stability, caused speculators will be admitted, caused turbulence. Similarly, financial markets ease and comfort for a long time, is also very dangerous, we should from time to time to a small hole in, the more gas leak. Otherwise it might repeat the 1990 Japan and the United States in 2000 mistakes! Second, super-markets have gained the suspects; will fall only the first domino? » The main stock market that is only a magnitude not seen the real, which is the rate that its amendment is not: the Standard & Poor's 5000 index (S & 500) or四%; MSCI World Index was down 40. 5%! The most important is the value of the U.S. market. Third, the world economy anomaly; plans to show that: from 1880, the actual business cycle and the adjustment of the Standard & Poor's Composite Index referred CAPE multiple ultra-high. From the table to see the curve: It is now the actual lead times. For a long time with the latest multiple compared with the average high of about 2 / 3, although not as high as two thousand years, but is already very high. In fact, it is profitable enterprises in the United States receive a larger raise, not only this, the world is such a number of areas. And Figure 2 shows the real value of the multiple, we see that the EPS of the cycle and the recent increase in the size of madness: 1991 December - September 2000 EPS increased 170 percent, in March 2002 -- December 2006 EPS increased 192 percent, while the March 2002, Enterprise Index constituent stocks in real terms than the EPS only 10 years ago to lower the bottom 19 percent. Misuse of the cycle as the trend will go wrong, and the profits of enterprises in terms of really big mistake. 4, and the abnormal situation can last long. As emerging enterprises in EPS of low weight forever, will enable enterprises一百二十年Index constituent stocks to the real growth rate of just 1.5 percent limit. This is also the overall economy's performance. At the end of March 2002, the EPS, the real growth rate for the 25 per cent, but this speed is not always continue. From previous experience, the growth rate from high to low risk is much higher. Thanks to the policy did not trigger inflation and a number of conditions must first get a clear understanding with the world economy a few abnormal situation, can better assess when to EPS will be negative. Corporate profitability is also one of the other also includes: Myeo and now throughout the vitality of economic growth around the absence of real interest rates low risk securities……. Therefore, the private interests of the Fund (PE) is borrowing to buy assets of financial market information in a number of phenomena, but also there are some common sense than the phenomenon. When companies improve the profitability of the time, his real interest rates did not increase with inflation is minimal, the link between people can not help feel surprised. There are several answers to the following: The following points will enable economic growth and stability: goods and services and the globalization of capital markets, monetary policy has been made dependent on the world proceeds to the East Asian countries and the recent high oil savings of the two major ethnic groups, China and the world's economic convergence of these countries so there will be a huge surplus. U.S. Kangxia the ultimate consumer of the bulk of the role of the United States is the productivity of the rapid increase…… when Sanchang first: the market usually have the tendency to super-up Chaodie, often destructive, followed by: the global interest rate tightening, but Outside the United States in the savings to reduce the surplus, once again: U.S. productivity growth also slowed, the last: the U.S. financial industry's profitability due to global changes in the money supply by the impact. Another greatest risk is the authentic U.S. economy to decline gradually. The United States is no longer a casual Kangqi the role of the consumer. There are risks of economic and market value is overestimated, because corporate earnings growth rate of water is in constant change, all things in the near future and the probability of reversal is not high.
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